What is the probability that Spanish politicians, as far as immigration concern, will change into opposite direction? Now there is a strong pro-immigrant stance. Is it possible that it will be reversed and law will be passed that will restrict immigration? And ease with which immigrants can get a permanent status?
Based on the available information, the probability of Spain reversing its current pro-immigrant stance to pass restrictive laws is moderate to high, but it is by no means a certainty. It hinges almost entirely on the outcome of the next general election.
The political landscape is deeply polarized on this issue. While the current leftist coalition has just enacted a major pro-immigrant measure, the main opposition parties are fiercely against it and have pledged to repeal it if they gain power.
Here is a comparison of the opposing positions that will shape Spain’s immigration future.
🏛️ The Current Leftist Coalition: A Pro-Immigrant Present
In January 2026, the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez approved a Royal Decree to regularize hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants already living in Spain .
Here are the key details of this new policy:
| Feature | Details of the New Regularization |
|---|---|
| Eligibility Date | Must have been in Spain before December 31, 2025. |
| Residency Requirement | Must prove at least 5 months of continuous residence in Spain. |
| Criminal Record | Must have no criminal record in Spain. |
| Initial Permit | Successful applicants receive a one-year temporary residence and work permit. |
| Path to Permanent Status | After the initial year, they must transition into one of the standard residence categories. It is not an automatic path to permanent status or citizenship . |
| Estimated Beneficiaries | Around 500,000 to 840,000 people could benefit . |
This move was a key concession by Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) to the far-left Podemos party to secure their parliamentary support for his fragile minority government . The government argues the measure is essential to integrate people already contributing to the economy, reduce black-market labor, and address the challenges of an aging population and low birth rate .
⚖️ The Right-Wing Opposition: A Push for Restriction
The probability of a policy reversal depends entirely on whether the main opposition parties can win the next election and form a government.
The two main right-wing parties, the People’s Party (PP) and Vox, have staked out clear positions against the current government’s immigration policies.
- The People’s Party (PP): The center-right PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has been sharply critical of the regularization. Feijóo has called it a «reward for illegal migration» and has pledged to repeal the decree if his party returns to power . Their criticism focuses on the potential «pull effect» and the strain on public services .
- Vox: The far-right party takes an even harder line. Leader Santiago Abascal has accused the government of using migration to «replace» the local population and «accelerate an invasion» . Vox was the only party in parliament to vote against the initial citizen-led proposal for this regularization in 2024, and it plans to challenge the decree in Spain’s Constitutional Court .
🔮 What are the Chances of a Reversal?
The likelihood of Spain adopting restrictive immigration laws is directly tied to the electoral fortunes of the PP and Vox.
- Current Polling: Recent polls show the PP leading with around 32% support, followed by the PSOE at 27%, and Vox at 17% . This suggests a strong chance that the next government could be led by the right.
- Coalition Dynamics: For the PP to form a government, they would almost certainly need the support of Vox, as they did in several regional coalitions until recently. While their relationship has been tense , a national-level coalition remains the most likely path to power for the right. In such a scenario, Vox’s hardline anti-immigration stance would heavily influence any new policies.
- The 2027 Election: The next general election must be held by August 2027 . If the PP (with Vox’s support) wins that election, the probability of reversing the current pro-immigrant course and passing restrictive laws becomes very high. If the PSOE manages to cling to power, the current direction is likely to continue or even expand.
💡 Potential Impact on Permanent Status
While the new regularization itself does not grant permanent status, the political debate signals what a future right-wing government might do regarding permanent residency.
If the PP and Vox were to gain power, you could expect:
- Repeal of Current Measures: The immediate step would be an attempt to repeal the January 2026 decree, blocking the regularization process for new applicants .
- Stricter Requirements: Any future paths to residency or permanent status would likely involve stricter requirements, longer waiting periods, and more rigorous checks.
- Focus on Deportation: The discourse from Vox, in particular, points towards a focus on immigration control and deportation rather than integration and regularization .
In summary, Spain’s immigration policy is at a crossroads. The current government has firmly planted its flag on the side of integration. However, with the right-wing opposition leading in the polls and pledging to reverse these policies, a significant shift towards restriction is a very real possibility after the 2027 election.
I hope this analysis provides a clear picture of the political battle lines. Would you like to know more about the specific economic arguments for and against Spain’s immigration policy?
Refs
The Conversation
2026/02/02
Spain’s mass regularisation for 500,000 undocumented migrants is not extreme, unprecedented or opportunistic
In January 2026, the Spanish cabinet approved a decree opening a pathway to legal residency for hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants who already live in the country. … The decree adopted in January 2026 explicitly revives the citizen-led proposal, but it also draws on earlier experiences in Spain.
European Parliament
2026/01/28
Parliamentary question | Extraordinary regularisation of immigrants in Spain | E-000366/2026 | European Parliament
In relation to the Spanish Government’s announcement that it would approve the extraordinary regularisation of irregular migrants – a potentially far-reaching measure with a high number of beneficiaries – and … – 3.Does the Commission believe, in line with its 2004 communication, that regularisation can incentivise irregular immigration and should not be c…
Euractiv
2026/02/04
Sánchez turns to wary partners to shore up an embattled administration | Euractiv
The latest flashpoint came last week when Podemos leader Irene Montero put forward a royal decree, agreed with Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE), to regularise the migration status of around 500,000 undocumented migrants living in Spain.
nyt.net
2026/02/11
Opinion | Spain’s Approach to Migration Is Overrated and Harmful
But Mr. Sánchez’s economic model, which is inextricable from his approach to migration, is overrated and in many ways harmful. … While immigration in Spain has supposedly been made necessary by a labor shortage, the unemployment rate in the country remains stubbornly in double digits…
qazinform.com
2026/01/26
Spain moves to ease migration rules
foreign nationals who were residing in the country before December 31, 2025 and can prove at least five months of continuous stay. … Experts at the Autonomous University of Madrid believe that despite political disputes, the decree is highly likely to remain in force. According to their data…
中国青年网
2026/02/03
全球反移民浪潮之下，为何西班牙逆势想做“移民灯塔”？_新闻频道_中国青年网
据新华社报道，1月27日，西班牙政府宣布将加快修订移民法律，多达数十万以“黑户”身份在该国打工和生活的外籍人员有望因此获得合法居留和工作的权利。
LBC
2026/01/29
Hundreds of migrants queue in Barcelona for paperwork after scheme allowing 500,000 to work announced | LBC
The left wing government will allow some migrants up to one year of legal residency and permission to work … «Spain just legalized 500,000 illegal aliens to ‘defeat the far-right’,» Cheong wrote in the post which has had over 12 million views.
温州新闻网
2026/01/28
西班牙将放宽移民法 大批“黑工”有望获居留权
根据西班牙政府拟定的新政策，凡是2025年12月31日之前入境、能提供材料证明已在西班牙生活至少5个月且无犯罪记录的外籍人员，均有资格申请合法居留身份，申请期预计从今年4月开始，6月底截止。赛斯说…
Euractiv
2026/01/26
Spain to approve ‘extraordinary regularisation’ of half a million migrants | Euractiv
– Spain’s cabinet is set to approve on Tuesday an extraordinary regularisation of around 500,000 undocumented migrants, a move that has triggered fierce backlash from the country’s conservative opposition. … was agreed between Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and its left-wing junior partner Podemos.
The New York Times
2026/02/15
How Spain Is Carving a Different Path on Immigration
Last month, its center-left government said it would give hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants a path to obtain legal status. The government … The center-right Popular Party said the new immigration policy would overwhelm public services. A spokeswoman for Vox, Spain’s far-right party…
